• Former ABC state political reporter Peter Kennedy. Photo by Steve Grant.
A ONE NATION candidate in the next federal election could potentially give Labor a slight buffer from the challenge posed by Independent Kate Hulett in Fremantle, political commentator Peter Kennedy says.
But the veteran ABC reporter cautioned the influence of the surging right wing party is so complex “you need AI” to really understand what impact it would have on the traditionally strong Labor seat.
Speaking at a University of Notre Dame Journalism Club event on Wednesday, Mr Kennedy said he expected a One Nation candidate would would take votes off the Liberals, and while there would probably be a preference exchange, there would still be leakage.
“Having a Teal candidate there does dive into the Liberal vote,” Assoc Prof Kennedy said.
“If you think that the Teals are stealing votes from the Liberals, and obviously in Curtin they are, how would that play out in Fremantle… you need AI to work it out.
“But Labor might be the beneficiary of it ahead of the Greens,” he said.
The comments came after One Nation’s breakthrough victory in the WA seat of Secret Harbour, where Luke Herdegen won the August 29 by-election with 39.1 per cent of first-preference votes and 57.2 per cent after preferences. It was the party’s first lower-house seat in WA.
Mr Kennedy said the result had demonstrated the potential for One Nation to disrupt established voting patterns, particularly in outer suburban and regional areas.
“One Nation support is is quite strong in rural Australia, and yeah, which used to be National Party territory.”
Mr Kennedy said the One Nation surge was part of a broader fragmentation of Australia’s traditional two-party system.
He traced the development of minor parties from the Democratic Labor Party and Australian Democrats through to the Greens, saying strong personalities had often been important to their success.
Returning to Pauline Hanson, he said her longevity in Australian politics was remarkable.
“She’s been around since 1996, 30 years in public life. That is sensational. That is really sensational.”
“And she’s peaking. She is peaking.”
Mr Kennedy said the Secret Harbour result had demonstrated that both Labor and the Liberals had lost support among some voters who had previously been loyal to the major parties.
“There are obviously lots of former Labor voters and lots of former Liberal voters, and what the two parties don’t know, and no one knows, is will they come back?”
He said the major parties needed to understand why voters were turning to alternatives.
“I don’t know. Depends on a number of things. Number one, it depends on the major parties lifting their game. Listen to people.”
Mr Kennedy said One Nation’s support was particularly strong in outer suburban and regional communities facing pressure from housing costs and other economic issues.
“Where’s One Nation support strongest? In outer suburbs and in regional Australia. So there’s a message there for the major parties: If you want to regain that support, go out and do something about it.”
Ms Hulett, who finished 2025’s federal election just 1400 votes behind Labor’s Josh Wilson has described Secret Harbour as a wake-up call to the major parties.
“One Nation is not the answer, but Secret Harbour should be seen as a rallying cry for everyone who feels ignored, and seeks change.
“Labor appears to have become so utterly disconnected from ordinary working people that they haven’t noticed that life is increasingly tough and more people than ever feel like they’re being let down by the old parliamentary duopoly.”
by STEVE GRANT